Tuesday, October 21, 2008

The Obama-Slide, a Foregone Conclusion

So many conservatives and Republicans have completely given up on this election.

Barack Obama is NOT a foregone conclusion and he is certainly not going to win by a landslide.

The Battleground States
Pelosi and Reid pretend the election is settled. The mainstream media pretends the election is settled. The pessimistic right actually believes it is settled. It's not. The best evidence of this is the battleground states. The media is making a big deal about McCain being forced to work for the traditional red states, but they are ignoring the fact that Obama is fighting just as hard in the traditional blue states. Minnesota has been solidly blue in every Presidential campaign in decades. We went for Mondale. According to CNN, we are now leaning towards Obama. Every minor jump in the polls for Obama is front page news. In a settled state. We aren't the only settled state, from either settlement, that has turned into a battleground. Obama currently has 192 "settled" electoral votes, and he can probably count on 150 of those after the Bradley Effect.

The Bradley Effect
Details here. The short version: Some people being polled are so worried about the perceptions of others that they lie about their choice of candidate to avoid the appearance of racism. This skews the polling numbers. Barack Obama is openly planning on implementing unconstitutional socialist* policies. That is enough reason to vote against him, regardless of his skin tone.

Media Bias
The mainstream media is so thoroughly in the bag for Mr. Obama. They are trying to demoralize the politically right. It's working. The left-wing commie propagandists are good at their jobs. Unfortunately(for them), they rest of the country isn't nearly as extreme. Most people float around the center, politically.

Have you looked at the poll results? An 8 point lead with a 3 percent margin for error is nothing. The margin for error means that the 50-to-42 point lead could just as easily be 47-to-45. That's without knowing the polling sample, methodology or confidence level. Factor in the Bradley Effect, and Media Bias, and McCain could conceivably have a 10 to 15 point lead.

I am not saying McCain is going to win, though I hope he does. I am saying that this race is too close to call, and anybody who says otherwise is either A) a propagandist, b) too hopeful, or C) completely taken by the media hype.

* "Redistribution of wealth" is a prime tenet of socialism, for those who were offended by that sentence.

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